A New Zealand

Demographic Transformation
1. Ageing population and declining fertility (doubling of 65+, sub-replacement fertility)
2. Ongoing urbanization - with concentration in top of the North Island (Auckland effect) and regional population stagnation/decline.
3.Constrained labour and skills supply - ongoing shortages.
4. Immigrant-led diversity (rapidly growing diversity plus Māori-led economic and cultural development)

Healthcare Shortages
NHS facing 38,000 nurse shortage even if government hits recruitment target
20 July, 2022|By Graham Clews
There will be a shortage of almost 40,000 nurses in England by 2023-24 even if the government hits its target of securing 50,000 more nurses by that year, new analysis suggests. The Health Foundation's REAL Centre workforce.

Māori - Younger and Growing
Aroha - 22 years of age, living in Gisborne

• Part of a still growing Māori population (2%pa)
• Fertility rate is dropping but still relatively high
• Gisborne is predominantly Māori (70%)
• 20% of all New Zealanders identify as Māori but 25% of workforce, 35% of all U15 year olds
• Fluent Te Reo speaker (level of fluency and rates have gone up with more than 250,000 speaking Te Reo) and heavily involved in kapa haka
• Aroha is employed part-time in precarious work in retail
• Underutilisation of Māori talent pool and skills because of geographical location, educational levels and skills training
• Public sector significantly ahead of private sector in acknowledging and using Tikanga and Te Reo and recruiting /retaining Māori   

Pākehā - Ageing and Wealthy
Bruce - 70 years old, lives in Thames

• 1.3 Million aged over 65 (nearly 25% of total population) and 222,000 aged over 85
• Lives in a hyper-aged town (nearly 50% aged over 65)
• Owns his own house plus two rental properties (net worth of 65+ in 2021 was $433,000)
• Living much longer (23.4 years from the age of 65, was 14 years in 1956)
• Still in paid work - over 65 year olds now 12% (300,000) of workforce and a quarter remain in paid employment past 65
• Superannuation now costs about $36 billion per year and represents 25% of core government spending - still not means tested or age of eligibility increased
• Part of politically active but conservative generation

New Zealand has an ageing population and a declining dependency ratio

Chinese - A superdiverse Aotearoa
Lilly - 33 years old, lives on the North Shore

• Born in China but is 1.5 generation
• Member of one of the dominant Asian communities who now make up 25% of New Zealand's population, and 38% of Auckland's
• 31% of the NZ prime working age population are from one of the Asian communities
• In 2030s, Asians 7% of 65+ population, Pākehā 75%
• Plays table tennis (114,000 in Auckland while 59,280 played rugby in 2019)
• Does not watch listen to and read any mainstream New Zealand media but is very active on social media
• Visits Beijing 2-3 times per year but has never visited Hamilton

 Super Diversity (2013 - 2038)

Pākehā - Millenials and Gen Z
Louise - 42, lives in Wellington

• Gen Z, one of 1.134 million 
• Has a partner but does not own a property. Still paying off student debt. Living in a beanpole family household.
• Has chosen not to have children (even though more children are born to women aged over 40 than to women 20 and under)
• Spent 8 years at University (5-8 years on average)
• Got first job - at a call centre when 26 and did not get current job (government department) until mid-thirties
• Entered labour market during Covid pandemic - labour market scarring
• Environment a major concern and frustrated at slow progress in 2020s. Vegetarian.

Ongoing urbanization & regional stagnation 

• Two-thirds of regions will experience ageing plus population stagnation or decline
• Main regional towns will grow - although growth will slow - while regions will experience population stagnation or decline in smaller towns and rural areas 
• More 65+ than 0-14 year olds

In 2 decades Auckland will have 49.3% of NZ's populatoin.